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APPLIED ECONOMIC FORECASTING TECHNIQUES
This book is concerned with methods of forecasting economic time series, that is, the movement over time of variables such as output, inflation, unemployment, interest rates and exchange rates. The purpose of this introduction is to provide a context for the subsequent chapters. It starts by noting that forecasting in some form is an integral aspect of our ordinary lives. It goes on to examine the specific need for economic forecasts, and describes some aspects of those forecasts. It examines the fact of forecast error, and discusses some ways in which the resulting uncertainty can be handled. It then considers the major use by governments of forecasts and macro-econometric models for policy analysis. It concludes by examining the future research agenda for macromodelling. Many of the subsequent chapters of this book represent important contributions to that developing and exciting agenda.
10001501 | 338.5 HAL a | RLC MM (Rak Buku Umum) | Available |
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